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Can You Beat a Casino? What Are Your Chances in Blackjack, Roulette, and Slots

You can significantly improve your chances of winning in any casino gambling game through the use of the tools of probability theory. But do you actually know the minimum chances of winning in any of these games?

While all games of chance, by definition, are based on randomness, gamblers can have a huge advantage in winning by a few particular factors.

The most important of these are learning techniques, improving your playability, and, of course, probability theory.

Applying probability theory, you can forecast your edge over other players and quickly calculate whether it's worth continuing to play by taking risks.

This time, let's look at your overall odds of winning at some of the most popular casino games — all of which can be accessed at Finnish bricks-and-mortar casinos and played regularly online.

Blackjack

If you’ve forgotten, blackjack is a popular version of the "21" card game and remains one of the oldest and most played games in any casino — including Finland's state-controlled casino monopoly, Casino Helsinki, as well as various licensed platforms offering online blackjack Finland.

As in poker, the odds of winning or losing in blackjack change with every card that is revealed.

Your chances are best when you are dealt an Ace in your starting hand. However, if high cards are drawn afterwards, your chances decrease significantly.

For example, the likelihood of being dealt a natural blackjack in your starting hand is only 1.2%, while the chance of landing on 20 points in your first two cards is around 10.2%.

Because the game allows the use of data and rational decision, it attracts even people who generally do not know anything about gambling. Others also enjoy that it is similar to solitaire because the dealer has no choice in play," said mathematician and blackjack expert Peter A. Griffin in his book The Theory of Blackjack.

Avoid Playing Blackjack 6 to 5

In the past, a successful blackjack was rewarded with a payout of 3 to 2. For example, a wager of €10 would get you a return of €15. However, most casinos, including some on the internet, now offer 6 to 5 games. With this, a wager of €10 will only get you €12.

This increases the house edge by around 1.45% in single-deck games and more than 2% in multi-deck games. Your best strategy is to bet at tables that offer the normal 3 to 2 payout.

Slot Machines

Slot machines, or slots, are easily found both in real gambling establishments across Finland and on sites such as Veikkaus.fi.

It's hard to determine a general chance of winning at slots because there are thousands of different types of slots with different numbers of reels, lines, and pay lines.

Nevertheless, in all slots alike, your chances of winning depend on two things: the random number generator (RNG) and the return-to-player percentage (RTP). In quality slots, RTP should be at least 95%.

And then there's RNG: on a simple slot with 3 reels and 6 symbols on each reel, there are 216 potential winning combinations. Depending on how many of those are winning combinations, your chance can be fractions of a percent or a number of percent.

And don't forget slots in Finland (especially those operated by Veikkaus) are regulated very carefully to ensure fairness — but the house still retains its advantage.

Roulette

And finally, but not the least, the most famous casino game — roulette.

Probability of winning differs based on the roulette version. The European roulette, which can be found most often in Finnish casinos and has 37 numbers (one zero), grants the house 2.7% advantage. The American roulette, with two zeros and 38 numbers, provides the house with a 5.26% advantage.

Otherwise, it's simple to compute your odds: if you bet on one number, your chances of winning are 1 in 37 (or 1 in 38 for American roulette). 

You may even bet on colors (red or black), even or odd numbers, or on larger groups of numbers. This gives you higher chances of winning but lowers the payout.